The Invisible Filter

How millions of bankable households disappear from Indonesia's housing finance.

Mapping bankability at national population scale across 500+ districts, making visible what Indonesia's housing finance system has never measured.

Nur Jihad Albar · UC Berkeley · Goldman School of Public Policy · 2026

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74.1M

Total households in Indonesia

5.77M

Program-eligible households for government-subsidized mortgages (FLPP)

~350K

Government-subsidized mortgage (FLPP) delivered per year

46–60%

Share scoring as Bankable+, depending on which lens is applied

From population to pipeline

Total households in Indonesia74.1M

74.1M

Within government-subsidized mortgage (FLPP) affordability window39.8M

39.8M

Program-eligible (non-homeowner, within income ceiling)5.77M

5.77M

Bankable+ households (range across 4 lenses)2.65M – 3.49M

2.65M – 3.49M

The same population, four definitions of bankability

Different screening lenses produce different counts. Each reflects a different screening priority. The question is which dimensions matter most.

5.77M

Households scoring as eligible under this lens

16.5×

Pipeline relative to 350K annual capacity

What Per. BP Tapera 9/2021 literally tests. Income within ceiling, no current homeownership.

1.00

0.00

00.250.50.751

What the analysis recommends

STATUS QUO

Current trajectory

Score: 3.40 / 5.00

SLIK relaxation is underway (111,000 applicants unblocked). Informal worker allocation raised to 15%. Formality remains the dominant screening signal because no consumer-directed verification layer yet exists.

ALT A

RECOMMENDED

Fix existing instruments

Score: 4.40 / 5.00

3.98M

Recalibrate the Jamkrindo guarantee so its income ceiling (Rp 4M tapak) matches the regulatory ceiling (Rp 8M). Extend the government-subsidized mortgage (FLPP) tenor from 20 to 25 years. Combined upper-bound reach: +1.331M additional households scoring as creditworthy. Near-term, administrative, within existing institutions.

ALT B

Build new instruments

Score: 2.85 / 5.00

Medium-term

Build a consumer-directed digital income verification layer on existing SNAP APIs, modeled on India's Account Aggregator (252.9M users). Integrate Tapera as a compulsory savings vehicle (PP 21/2024, private-sector deadline May 2027). Higher impact ceiling but longer timeline, multi-stakeholder coordination required.

Start with what exists. Build toward what is needed. Status Quo is already underway. Alternative A is near-term and administrative. Alternative B is medium-term and institutional.

What changes when the environment changes

Two changes within reach of existing institutions: extending the government-subsidized mortgage (FLPP) loan term from 20 to 25 years, and recalibrating the Jamkrindo guarantee to match the regulatory income ceiling. The simulator below shows the joint effect on the bankable pool.

Scoring lens

Tenor extension (20 → 25 years)

Reduces monthly installment by approximately 11.4% across all zones, expanding the affordability window.

Jamkrindo guarantee alignment

Neutralizes the Risk Buffer dimension, modeling the effect of an aligned credit guarantee that absorbs collateral and asset gaps.

Bankable+ households

2.652M

Baseline

All estimates are upper bounds. They assume the income-verification gap is resolved. The simulator illustrates upper-bound expansion under stated assumptions; realized impact will depend on implementation.

What this study does

This study scores 5.77 million program-eligible households on four dimensions of bankability , Income Adequacy, Income Stability, Financial Track Record, and Risk Buffer , then applies four different weighting schemes to reveal how the definition of "bankable" shapes who gets served.

The four lenses are: Creditworthiness (balanced risk assessment), Bank Product Screening (reverse-engineered from bank product criteria), Credit Professional (expert judgment from a lending professional within the bank), and Regulatory (affordability only).

Results range from 2.65M to 3.49M Bankable+ households depending on which lens is used , a 14.5 percentage-point swing on the same population. The same families. Different answers.

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